Putin and Trump have convinced me I was wrong about the twenty-first century

 

May I suggest to Mr. Reich adding a third name to his brilliant and obvious logic, Netanyahu of actual Israel.....  O.D.

Robert Reich - Published March 12 on Substack.

I used to believe several things about the twenty-first century that Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and Donald Trump’s election in 2016 have shown me are false. I assumed:

Nationalism is disappearing. I expected globalization would blur borders, create economic interdependence among nations and regions, and extend a modern consumer and artistic culture worldwide.

I was wrong. Both Putin and Trump have exploited xenophobic nationalism to build their power. (Putin’s aggression has also ignited an inspiring patriotism in Ukraine.)

Nations can no longer control what their citizens know. I assumed that emerging digital technologies, including the Internet, would make it impossible to control worldwide flows of information and knowledge. Tyrants could no longer keep their people in the dark or hoodwink them with propaganda.

Wrong again. Trump filled the media with lies, as has Putin. Putin has also cut off Russian citizens from the truth about what’s occurring in Ukraine.

Advanced nations will no longer war over geographic territory. I thought that in the “new economy” land was becoming less valuable than technological knowhow and innovation. Competition among nations would therefore be over the development of cutting-edge inventions.

I was only partly right. While skills and innovation are critical, land still provides access to critical raw materials and buffers against potential foreign aggressors.

Major nuclear powers will never risk war against each other because of the certainty of “mutually assured destruction.” I bought the conventional wisdom that nuclear war was unthinkable.

I fear I was wrong. Putin is now resorting to dangerous nuclear brinksmanship.

Civilization will never again be held hostage by crazy isolated men with the power to wreak havoc. I assumed this was a phenomenon of the twentieth century, and that twenty-first century governments, even totalitarian ones, would constrain tyrants.

Trump and Putin have convinced me I was mistaken. Thankfully, America booted Trump out of office — but his threat to democracy remains.

Advances in warfare, such as cyber-warfare and precision weapons, will minimize civilian casualties. I was persuaded by specialists in defense strategy that it no longer made sense for sophisticated powers to target civilians.

Utterly wrong. Civilian casualties in Ukraine are mounting.

Democracy is inevitable. I formed this belief in the early 1990s when the Soviet Union had imploded and China was still poor. It seemed to me that totalitarian regimes didn’t stand a chance in the new technologically driven, globalized world. Sure, petty dictatorships would remain in some retrograde regions. But modernity came with democracy, and democracy with modernity.

Both Trump and Putin have shown how wrong I was on this, too.

Meanwhile, Ukrainians are showing that Trump’s and Putin’s efforts to turn back the clock on the twenty-first century can only be addressed with a democracy powerful enough to counteract autocrats like them.

They are also displaying with inspiring clarity that democracy cannot be taken for granted. Democracy is not a spectator sport. It’s not what governments do. Democracy is what people do.

Ukrainians are reminding us that democracy survives only if people are willing to sacrifice for it. Some sacrifices are smaller than others. You may have to stand in line for hours to vote, as did tens of thousands of Black people in America’s 2020 election. You may have to march and protest and even risk your life so others may vote, as did iconic civil rights leaders like the late John Lewis and Martin Luther King, Jr.

You may have to knock on hundreds of doors to get out the vote. Or organize thousands to make your voices heard. And stand up against the powerful who don’t want your voices heard.

You may have to fight a war to protect democracy from those who would destroy it.

The people of Ukraine are also reminding us that democracy is the single most important legacy we have inherited from previous generations who strengthened it and who risked their lives to preserve it. It will be the most significant legacy we leave to future generations — unless we allow it to be suppressed by those who fear it, or we become too complacent to care.

Putin and Trump have convinced me I was wrong about how far we had come in the twenty-first century. Technology, globalization, and modern systems of governance haven’t altered the ways of tyranny. But I, like millions of others around the world, have been inspired by the Ukrainian people — who are reteaching us lessons we once knew.

As always, my many thanks to all for following my blogs and chosen articles. Pls. stay safe and well.

DANGEROUS AND FATAL TRENDS............

 

In the 20th century, liberal democracy beat fascism, communism and nationalism, even religious fanaticism. In the 21st century, the autocrats and fascist type leaders are winning, wrote Anne Applebaum in the Atlantic. I would add; both fascism and nationalism are definitely on the rise world wide. Did lack of education, scientific advancement, or too much brain washing, fake news and indoctrination lead to a Brexit vote in Europe, a rise to new levels of white supremacy and extreme right wing parties, and a full Trump era and its aftermath in the U.S. plus our latest version of hegemonic imperialist war in Ukraine. 

How did wars and mass killing and annihilation of the other get to be our only alternative to any other solution, this is a mentality of past centuries, violent, brutal and absurd, many of us thought that our 21st century will carry us away from, that we were headed to a more logical, rational and advanced  civilized and unified common world. 

Instead of trying to make an unaccommodating world in its image, policed and ruled by international laws, America and a post hegemonic West, as well as few big powers elsewhere, should all seek to fortify a model, their model, that others would want to emulate. The rights of the individual, self determination, consent of the governed, checks and balances on political powers, cultural tolerance and free expression, eradicate all apartheid rules and practices, they are all quickly fading out in several spots of the world including the Western hemisphere. 

Americans, and to a lesser degree Europeans, are not promoting and defending these values. On the contrary all advanced nations are eroding these basic rules of the civilized world, and some super powers are transforming these same values into their own twisted hegemonic versions. How can America, or the advanced powers defend and lecture the world today, when in just few years, they all practically lived through insurrections against the democratic transfer of power, almost total coups to grab and maintain power by small groups against the majority, a galloping spread of wealth and inequality by powerful oligarch and super rich entities in all these countries without exceptions. offering themselves exuberant and fraudulent tax systems, as well as huge political power. 

Wars and foolish adventures, mostly to the benefits of the war industries and special contractors, even the official armies and their commanders, driven by special interests foreign and interior lobbies, are becoming the norms. All these combinations of modern politics and governance are creating a dysfunctional environment preventing America and the West in general from reading correctly the dynamics of the global scene and the power shifts and preventing us from being the primary movers and shakers on the global scene that we believed ourselves to be for a long time. 

Finally, we should all remember that no crime excuses any other crime, that blaming anyone doesn't absolve anyone else, and recognize that the solutions now being offered of more weapons and a bigger NATO are also what got us here, nobody's forced to commit mass murder, the president of Russia and its military elites may simply love war, or find the timing convenient to fulfill their ambitions, they have wanted an excuse for one, and they probably would not have had that excuse had we not operated our strategic policies defiantly and arrogantly, we could have answered some of their more reasonable demands and met them half way. 

    As always , my gratitude to all my good readers, stay safe and well.             

UKRAINIAN PERSPECTIVES AND BEYOND........

A good friend sent me this short  poignant comment about the situation in Ukraine, and how a Palestinian looks at it.

Oh my God !!! It is a truly scary situation. I can certainly empathize with the Ukrainian people. And, Ukraine is in grave danger of becoming yet another "Palestine": IF, yes IF Russia occupies Ukraine for 74 years, conducts genocide and ethnic cleansing of 80% of the Ukrainian population, destroys 535 Ukrainian towns and villages, prevents Ukrainian refugees from ever returning to their homeland (against UN Resolution 194), builds 250 colonial settlements, and establishes an apartheid regime.

But, please don't fret too much. Please calm down. No one expects more than "a fraction" of that to actually happen in Ukraine. Remember that Zelensky is a comedian and Putin is bound to finally give up and smile. Please, just relax and take it easy, like us Palestinians who have endured an Ultra-Form of Occupation for 74 years and counting.                 Signed Awad.

I will continue, by copying this quick short article, by Robert Reich, complimenting and describing the situation from a Western and American point of view, Mr. Reich is a leading political analyst in the U.S and international arena.

We must do what we can to contain Vladimir Putin’s aggression in Ukraine. But we also need to be clear-eyed about it, and face the costs. As I’ve said before, economics can’t be separated from politics, and neither can be separated from history. Here are eight sobering realities:

1. Will the economic sanctions now being put into effect stop Putin from seeking to take over Ukraine? No. They will complicate Russia’s global financial transactions but they will not cripple the Russian economy. After Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in 2014, the U.S. and its allies imposed economic sanctions which slowed the Russian economy temporarily, but Russia soon rebounded. Since then, Russia has taken steps to lessen its reliance on foreign debt and investment, which means that similar sanctions will have less effect. In addition, the rise of crypto currencies and other digital assets allow Russia to bypass bank transfers, which are the control points for sanctions. Bottom line: The sanctions already imposed or threatened could reduce Russia’s gross domestic product, but only by a few percentage points.

2. What sort of sanctions would seriously damage Russia? Sanctions on Russia’s enormous oil and gas exports could cause substantial harm. Russia produces 10 million barrels of oil a day, which is about 10 percent of global demand. It ranks third in world oil production (behind the United States and Saudi Arabia). It ranks second in natural gas (behind the United States), according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

3. Then why not impose sanctions on them? Because that would seriously harm consumers in Europe and the US — pushing up energy prices and worsening inflation (now running at 7.5 percent annually in the US, a 40-year high). Although the US imports very little Russian oil or natural gas, oil and natural gas markets are global — which means shortages that push up prices in one part of the world will have similar effects elsewhere. The price of oil in the US is already approaching $100 a barrel, up from about $65 a year ago. The price of gas at the pump is averaging $3.53 a gallon, according to AAA. For most Americans, that gas-pump price is the single most important indicator of inflation, not just because they fuel their cars with gas but because the cost is emblazoned in big numbers outside every gas station in America. (The biggest beneficiaries of these price increases, by the way: Energy companies like Halliburton, Occidental Petroleum and Schlumberger, which are now leading the S&P 500. Anyone in favor of putting a windfall profits tax on them?)

4. Will stronger sanctions weaken Putin’s control over Russia? Possibly. But they could also have the opposite effect — enabling Putin to fuel Russia’s suspicions toward the West and stir up even more Russian nationalism. The harshest U.S. measures would cause the average Russian to pay higher prices for food and clothing or devalue pensions and savings accounts because of a crash in the ruble or Russian markets, but these might be seen as necessary sacrifices that rally Russians around Putin.

5. Any other foreign policy consequences we should be watching? In a word: China. Russia’s concern about the West has already led to a rapprochement with China. A strong alliance between the two most powerful world autocracies could be worrisome.

6. What about domestic politics here in the US? Foreign policy crises tend to drive domestic policy off the headlines, and weaken reform movements. Putin’s aggression in Ukraine has already quieted conversations in America about voting rights, filibuster reform, and Build Back Better — at least for now. Large-scale war, if it ever comes to this, deadens reform. World War I brought the progressive era to a halt. World War II ended FDR’s New Deal. The Vietnam War stopped Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society.

Wars and the threat of wars also legitimate huge military expenditures and giant military bureaucracies. America is already spending $776 billion a year on the military, a sum greater than the next ten giant military powers (including Russia and China) together. Wars also create fat profits for big corporations in war industries.

The possibility of war also distracts the public from failures of domestic politics, as the Spanish-American War did for President William McKinley and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq did for George W. Bush. (Hopefully, Biden’s advisors aren’t thinking this way.)

7. Could the sanctions lead to real war between Russia and the West? Unlikely. Americans don’t want Americans to die in order to protect Ukraine (most Americans don’t even know where Ukraine is, let alone our national interest in protecting it). And neither Russia nor the US wants to be annihilated in a nuclear holocaust.

But international crises such as this one always run the risk of getting out of hand. Russia and the US have giant stockpiles of nuclear weapons. What if one is set off accidentally? More likely: What if Russia cyberattacks the US, causing massive damage to US utilities, communications, banks, hospitals, and transportation networks here? What if Russian troops threaten NATO members along Ukraine’s borders? Under these conditions, might the US be willing to commit ground troops?

Those who have fought ground and air wars know war is hell. Subsequent generations tend to forget. By the eve of World War I, many in America and Britain spoke of the glories of large-scale warfare because so few remembered actual warfare. Today, most Americans have no direct experience of war. Afghanistan and Iraq were abstractions for most of us. Vietnam has faded from our collective memory.

8. What is Putin really after? Not just keeping Ukraine out of NATO, because NATO itself isn’t Putin’s biggest worry. After all, Hungary and Poland are NATO members but are governed in ways that resemble Russia more than Western democracies. Putin’s real fear is liberal democracy, which poses a direct threat to authoritarian “strongmen” like him (just as it did to Donald Trump). Putin wants to keep liberal democracy far away from Russia. Yet for nearly two centuries, Ukraine has been the leading edge of Western ideology and culture in the face of a reactionary Russia.

Putin’s means of keeping Western liberal democracy at bay isn’t just to invade Ukraine, of course. It’s also to stoke division inside the West by fueling racist nationalism in Western Europe and the United States. In this, Trump and Trumpism continue to be Putin’s most important ally.

As  always, my many thanks to all! Stay safe and well