After everything that happened, who emerged victorious from the Iran-Israel war? I answered: Firstly, in wars there is no winner, everyone is a loser, to different degrees. Secondly: This was not a real war, but rather a play agreed upon down to the smallest details. Third: The only beneficiary of this dramatic confrontation is the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu.
Let's start with what was called a war between the Persian state and the Zionist state. Never before in history has there been a direct military confrontation between the Persians and the Zionists, but rather an alliance and service against the countries and peoples of the region. In the modern era, Shahen Shah Iran was an ally of Israel openly, and Khomeini Iran was an ally in secret. Both countries competed to serve Western goals by dividing the region, preventing its union and the growth of its international power and status, always remaining under the umbrella of protection and need for American and European powers, and completely relying on its raw natural resources.
Tehran and Tel Aviv played the role of the “bogeyman” that threatens the security and stability of the Arabs, in the Gulf, the Shiite Crescent, and Yemen from Iran’s side, and in the rest of the regions and countries from Israel’s side. The Arab revolutionaries and their soldiers contributed to the success of their plan, who turned against stable monarchical regimes and turned their countries into socialist camps that stirred up unrest in the surroundings, incited coups in safe countries, and justified the capitals of the Western camp for their intervention with the excuse of defending their interests in the region. They were helped by those parties, organizations and militias that raise the banners of liberation, unity and resistance, and only fire their bullets at the chests of Arabs, and only resist Arab governments.
There are many agreements between the axis of evil extending from the eastern Gulf to the eastern Mediterranean, including rules of engagement and red lines. Over the course of forty-five years, these rules and lines were rarely violated. And each time it is contained by consensus about acceptable and possible reactions.
When Qassem Soleimani was assassinated, Tehran asked Washington, according to the story of former President Donald Trump, which was not denied by the Iranians and confirmed by the facts, for Iranian missiles to bomb the vicinity of the Ain al-Assad base in northern Iraq, at a specific time, and with previously announced coordinates, as a response. The American administration agreed, and the bombing was carried out with empty bomb missiles in the desert, and no one was injured. Iran announced that it had achieved its revenge, and America did not respond as promised.
This time too, Israel violated the rules of engagement and international law by bombing a building attached to the Iranian embassy in Damascus, thus encroaching on land that is considered Iranian by international custom. It killed senior leaders in the Revolutionary Guard, most notably the one responsible for military and security operations in Syria and Lebanon.
The blow was painful and the slap was humiliating and cruel, so there was a need for a response that would save the attacker some face, but without igniting a war between two unequal forces. Israel, and behind it America, Britain and France, is a destructive nuclear and missile power. America does not want to open another front in addition to the burning fronts in Ukraine and Gaza, and the escalating confrontations with Russia and China.
Despite its eagerness to strike the Iranian nuclear and missile programs to death, with Western support and cover, Israel is not safe from suicidal consequences, especially from Hezbollah, which has a huge stock of precision missiles that have not been used to date, and does not wish to open new fronts before ending its predicament in Gaza. .
Accordingly, it was agreed, according to American sources who spoke to the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, the Washington Post and others, through the Swiss embassy, which sponsors American interests in Tehran, and a number of Arab mediators, that a limited, monitored and announced targeting of Israel would be “allowed”, which would facilitate confrontation. It has the fleets and bases of America, Britain, and France in the region, and Israel handles what remains through its Iron Dome, supported by advanced American monitoring and defense weapons.
Indeed, Tehran announced in advance the timing, nature of the attack and its objectives, abandoning the element of surprise that Israel adheres to in all its attacks. The Western air defense network shot down 99% of the hundreds of missiles and drones that were launched from southern Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon towards Israel, while it was in The sky of these countries and Jordan.
As for the missiles that arrived, they were confronted by the American-reinforced Israeli air defense, and only two missiles reached the ground, one of which struck a military base in southern Israel, causing material damage, and another struck a civilian area and injured a Palestinian child.
The head of the Iranian delegation to the United Nations was anticipating the results and announced as soon as the drones were flying and before achieving any success that the Iranian response was complete, and there was no longer justification for further escalation!! Thus, the war ended before it began, and things will return to how they were, as if nothing had happened.
The beneficiary of all this drama is Israel. After its isolation narrowed, international opposition to the war of extermination in Gaza escalated, and demands began to cut off military support and arms sales to it, Israel’s threatening tone from its neighbors and its duty to support and protect it returned. Critical voices in the US Congress and the British Parliament faded, and the international media was preoccupied with Iranian threats to the sea lanes and the bombing of Israel. .
After the US President and the British Prime Minister were threatening to withhold weapons and demand Israeli pledges not to use them against civilians, support returned to higher than it was. The demonstrations in support of Gaza stopped and the international diplomatic and legal movement against it calmed down.
As for Netanyahu, who was facing demonstrations and internal Israeli opposition to his handling of the Gaza war, and his responsibility for the Hamas attack on October 7, he was able to unify ranks with him, direct attention to a more dangerous and greater existential war, and curb all opposition against him.
Thus, intentionally or not, Tehran provided Israel with a lifeline, helped it overcome the repercussions of its failure in the Gaza war, and saved its prime minister and his extremist government from an international siege and internal opposition. If this is not the literal definition of service and secret alliance, then I don't know what is ??
A very factual and realistic analysis, by Dr. K. Batarfi. reflecting the thoughts and mood in most of the Middle-East and beyond. The idea is an old one, not substantiated fully till now, with this new development of Iran attacking Israel, and zero casualties or damages, and the responses of all parties, makes it hard to refute, I'm grateful to Dr. Batarfi for his contribution, that I copied and published for wider viewership and reflection.
As always , my many thanks to all my readers.
