PROPOSED GEOPOLITICAL SCENARIOS .......

The continued drama of Middle-Eastern geopolitics and modern political geography , as well as the creation of political and ethnic entities , for the past century , is dulled by events covering the entirety of the Middle-East nowadays , and being reshaped by new hegemonic ambitions , mostly going through the Sunni/Shiite divide , and influencing all its various sects and ethnic populations .

No objective observer can neglect the latest quick and frightening events taking place now in the area , whether in the Qalamoun area in Syria , its bordering Arsal town and surroundings in Lebanon , and the latest entry of 20.000 Iranian and Iraqi  Shiite  fighters supposedly to save the Assad regime .

The outcome of Qalamoun and Arsal mini wars between Hizballa  and the various hordes of salafist Sunni Musslems , no matter of how its outcome might turn , and whoever might claim victory , the outcome would invariably be disastrous for Lebanon and the area .

Any strengthening of ISIS and or any of its affiliates is obviously horribly disastrous , while the further Shiite domination and isolation of  Sunni towns and areas , on the whole northern Lebanese territory , and adjacent Syrian areas , will have its impact in a continued Sunni resistance furthering terrorist acts , methods and tactics .

Hizballa is already the major political and military player in Lebanon , it attempted and practically succeeded in 2008 to stage a small scale coup , mostly in Beirut but intimidating the whole Lebanese spectrum . They were not , and are not now in denial nor hiding their hegemonic ambitions , over the entire Lebanese political and military system , of course always with a smart policy of alliances  with naive and selfish Maronite figures and other factions , mostly under the Syrian regime's direct influence .

With the undeclared Iranian recent takeover of the the Syrian capital , its corridor to the Syrian coastal areas , and a total control of more than 50 %  of Lebanese territory , all executed now through direct Iranian and Hezballa fighting forces , geopolitics as we know it could be  in real jeopardy , and in the process of being totally reshaped . The military might and hegemonic ambitions of both Hizballa and Iran is no more under disguise , imposing in Lebanon their ally as a president , a total supremacy over a deliberately weakened government and an intimidated puppet parliament would allow them and their allies the needed free hands , needed for any new scheme being drawn for the area .

The de facto divided Syria plus a controlled Lebanon all under  Iranian territorial and political sphere is an incomparable win to the Iranian regime , and indirectly its Russian ally , Assad and other Lebanese politicians will be of minor importance and influence , a fictitious preservation of  ethnic minorities , could and will be maintained , only "pour la form" and to silence international concerns and temporarily improve the image of the Shiite side vis-a-vis their Sunni opponents .

Many signs have been floating in favor of such scenarios , but the conclusions of the newly staged Qalamoun and Arsal mini wars , and the recent massive influx of Iranian elements would signal the real go ahead of this new faze for the area .

Finally , what remains to be closely observed , is the degree of involvement and interest of Israel and the US in this whole major change for the  area , and if one or both countries are seriously involved in directly influencing and/or  negotiating this modern reshaping of borders and geopolitical new entities and realities .


My as always , many thanks for your time and patience .