Friday, February 12, 2016

Mr. OBAMA ..... THE LEVANT .....


Many Americans including myself ,  consider Mr. Obama as a highly intelligent person and president . He  surely , in his two terms as a president , set the tone of politics in many aspects and areas of our lives for decades to come . Not many agree though on all his politics and achievements , but almost everyone agrees on his shrewdness , perceptiveness  and composure .


One area of the Obama's administration weaknesses and an almost total failure , according to most , was his policies and his implementation of these policies  throughout the Middle-East . Where he totally proved the U.S. capable of intervening three times at the wrong places , Iraq , Afghanistan and Libya , not to mention Somalia and Yemen , and totally abstaining from desperately needed positive moves in Syria .  He worsened the ugly inheritance of his predecessor George W. Bush .


As it looks right now , Iraq is being systematically divided , and a de facto pseudo confederation of  ethnic/religious among the three main groups , Shiia , Sunni and Kurds . Libya is still totally in the unknown , while Yemen and Afghanistan the slaughter continues .


Syria with its million dead, injured and tortured beyond human reasoning , and its many millions sent into refuge , is headed slowly and surely in the same direction , with borders being continuously redrawn by many regional and international players , presently the pendulum indicates mostly , an independent Alawite entity , covering most of the coastal areas , and linked to as many possible cities and smaller enclaves in the Syrian interior , the fate of some larger cities like Damascus , Aleppo , Homs , Hamma and Daraa , are to be decided by further warring tactics on all sides .


Both Russia and Iran , Israel and some others , would welcome very much whatever they can achieve geographically , but ultimately even the Alawite enclave might prove satisfactory , then an organized disentanglement of the existing Lebanon , might only add further Shiite lands and strategic demographic importance to this newly founded country . The Shiite crescent from Iran to Baghdad and the Mediterranean costs would be achieved , Russia of course would be the godfather and protector of the new entity , while maintaining its presence both over the sea and in the region .


Israel , as always a major agitator and instigator of this game and a permanent force behind pushing the U.S. into a systematic destruction of most of its Arab neighbors is bound to keep the Golan heights , but is now looking suspiciously into the end results , doubting its long defense reliance  with the U.S. and starting a bizarre outlook toward militaristic Russia , while keeping its eternal lobbying pressures  to increase its annual U.S military package from 3$ billion to 5$ b a year , for the next 5 to 10 years , maybe it's a price for American tax payers to maintain a happy and satisfied fat pseudo ally instead of feeding American  homeless people.


There are the two remaining regional players , Saudi and Turkey , both stubborn carriers of the Sunni flag and slogans , who originally opposed all aspects of this game , and thought of acquiring the whole of Syria , including its Alawite sides , their rewards and compensation price would be the creation of a Sunni enclave in the middle , sharing big parts of both Iraq and Syria , to be placed under a direct tutelage of Turkey and Saudi , governed by a pseudo Islamic/civilian  autocracy/theocracy , and practically linking Turkey by land to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf .


A practical plan to suite all sides , political and economical , including a pipe line for oil from the gulf areas to the Mediterranean shores and Europe , possibly vexing the Russian oil plans , but hey !!  no one can satisfy everyone on everything . Non the less a very bad scenario to the region from a historic perspective .


The U.S. and the Obama administration's inability and unwillingness to move and react promptly gave the Iranian and later the Russians and their clones on the ground a practical total win , that is still in the making , against  many or most people wishes internationally and in the area .  The administration's policies toward the area , are only enforcing the belief of most people and countries of the area and the world that whoever relies and bets on the U.S. is mistaken  and will  fail , while those who take Russia as their protector will win and achieve their goals , a dangerous mantra for the future of our interests  and our image throughout to  world .


Our foreign policies , and our application of force ,in different world crisis and versus countries like Russia , Iran and Israel , all with big agendas of colonialism  and  hegemony , by any means while using any situation to win and extend their powers , rendering the U.S. less than an innocent spectator , is harmful  to our future and our role in international affairs , as well as maintaining stable long term allies .


This administration's behavior toward the Levant , and the Israeli /Palestinian conflict, didn't prove to be the most clairvoyant , nor intelligent to solve and correct situations , on the contrary it completed the total screw up of its predecessors of neocons and Israeli manipulated instruments , albeit using other methods and possibly some innocent good faith .


My usual many thanks for your time  and help spreading the blog .         


  

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