It looks as if the Trump administration is possibly reaching a plan of action for its Syria/Iraq , and the whole Middle-East operation and strategy. After many years of undecidedness by the Obama administration , that only led to lengthening the Syrian nightmare, the killing of more than half a million and the displacement of many millions of Syrians, and a practical de-facto ethnic/religious division of the country. Similar fates and chaos could hit all their neighbors without exception .
The Trump initial campaign slogans and its first month or so in office were as lost and undecided as to the fate of the Syrian regime and its president, the unity of the country and the Russian stake in it. Now it looks as if a plan is being crafted and quietly implemented, surely and efficiently.
The subdivision of Syria, either with a very loose confederation, or totally separated two or more independent and autonomous zones and territories, run by their local tribe's leaders and new war lords. The re-invented deconstructing Syria plan, is an old idea, that serves many interests and parties, Israel and the U.S. primarily, by looking at a new dominance of the whole area of the newly redefined M-E, as well as a very efficient control of the rich pipeline routes serving the oil/gas world. Unserving Russia and damaging its oil flow control to Europe.
A permanent American base along the Euphrates, directly controlling the entirety of the M-E. Iran, parts of southern and eastern Turkey and its boarders with Russia, and the new pseudo coastal territory with the Russian naval base neighboring the Shiite Hezbollah new routes from Damascus to the Lebanese southern Mediterranean coast. I did write about this plan in a previous blog, and how by creating an entity between eastern and middle Syria and western Iraq could well serve local Sunni aspirations of independence from Shiite influence, and their pan Arab sponsors. For many a win-win situation.
Sec. of State Tillerson, few days ago, in a presentation announced that U.S. troops would not leave Iraq after concluding the siege of Mosul, the same would apply to Syria after liberating Raqqa from ISIS, the intention of Washington to keep troops deployed more or less indefinitely in the territories now occupied by Isis, seems to be the birth of the new adopted plan of keeping a foot there, and not allowing either Isis nor Assad to come back. Mr. Tillerson is calling it for now "Interim zones of stability".
Readers will recall that Hillary Clinton was a full proponent of safe zones in Syria, though the whole plan wasn't implemented back then . Clearly the new administration in Washington is fully using the fight against ISIS as a pretext for capturing and creating the new territory, it's energy rich, excellently situated for military and air force bases, and a super geographical position for the pipeline corridors,as for total dominance over the entire area.
The risk of serious clashes with both Russia, and to a lesser degree Iran, is real, as this plan is very damaging to both entities' ambitions. But the U.S. believes it could handle Russia, and convince it of only keeping some influence in the remaining Syrian coastal area, while unleashing Israel and the Sunni world world against Iran, enough to keep Iran quiet and the others thrilled.
The whole plan is a total departure of Trump's campaign rhetoric of peace and respect to other nations, and an open Russian detente, but who cares for the old rhetoric of a gone campaign, even Senator McCain would be happy with such a policy.
An addition of a new American base with some tens of thousands soldiers around the Euphrates would constitute a nice addition to American forces globally, and to Mr. Trump's image as a superior strategist. Will certainly better serve Tel Aviv's regional ambitions and security, and serve the oil world nicely, and only further vex the Iranian Mullahs and restrict Russian ambitions. A win- win situation for the Trump camp .
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