As the world seems to be doing better progress on stabilizing this pandemic, at least by gaining on the vaccine fronts almost everywhere. And although we're noticing new trends developing dangerously in many areas of the world like India, Brazil, even parts of Europe and other places, plus an unjustified refusal to vaccinate from a good portion of the population in most countries and continents, still the general trend is encouraging to turn this virus almost like any other non lethal virus we live with most of our lives.
A famous Yale law professor, G. Calabresi, has been quizzing his students for decades with this fable, "He asks the students to imagine a god coming forth to offer society a wondrous invention that would improve everyday life in almost everyway. It would allow people to spend more time with friends and family, see new places and do jobs they otherwise could not do. But it would come at a price, in exchange for this great invention the god would choose 1000 young men and women and strike them dead.
Professor Calabresi then would ask his students if they would take the deal, almost invariably, the students would say no. The professor then would explain; "What's the difference between this deal and the automobile invention. The truth is, automobile accidents kill many more than 1000 young Americans every year, actually the U.S. death toll from car accidents hovers at about 40,000 annually.
Wa accept this toll almost unthinkingly, because vehicle crashes have always been part of our lives. We cannot imagine a world without them. It's a classical example of human irrationality about risk, we often underestimate large, chronic dangers, like car crashes or chemical pollution, and fixate on tiny but striking risks, like plane crashes or shark attacks. And new striking risks are always more fearful.
The Covid19 pandemic certainly fits well under the new striking risk, it's global, and has disrupted life as we know it for almost 2 years now, it has changed how we live, where we work, even how we cover our faces and socialize, Covid is and feels omnipresent and is everywhere in our lives. Fortunately it is curable, vaccinations of large numbers of the global population proved it, and it is radically reducing the contractions and the effects of the virus.
Still, many or most vaccinated people are cautious and worrisome from the virus and its deadly effects. It's a new phenomena. Newly released data shows that 5800 fully vaccinated Americans had contracted Covid. It sounds like a big number, but in fact it shows that only one in 12,000 vaccinated people will contract the virus. The same applies to other vaccines, where 6 cases of blood clot occurred over millions of vaccines, it would put the chances at one in millions of this rare side effect, still better than the odds of winning the lotto.
But still, they are not zero, and I would doubt that they will be zero anytime soon. Covid will not be totally eradicated from human life. It will be controlled and lived with as we learned to live with plane crashes, shark attacks, or our yearly flue seasons and flue shots. But this is exactly what vaccines do, if you're vaccinated Covid presents a miniscule risk to you and you to others. A car trip is a bigger risk to you and others, about 100 Americans are likely to die in car accidents in a day, while the new Federal data suggests that soon either zero or one vaccinated person will die in a day form Covid.
We all should keep wearing masks, as they further reduce the little risks, in some cultures like the Far East and especially Japan, a strong culture of mask wearing has been the norm for long decades, no one complains. There are going to be some challenges, and new habits for the after vaccination periods, we have to accept and adapt.
This blog was inspired by a good article in the NY Times, by D. Leonhardt. My usual many thanks to all, stay well and safe.
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