Alon Mizrahi
Many times in the past months I've been asked, by so many people, what I thought was going to happen, or where things were going. My answer has always been the same: a bigger war was inevitable. Israel was going to launch a major offensive against Lebanon, then Iran.
I even added a timeframe for that war: it was to happen in the fall of this year (2024), or by next year's spring at the latest.
Things have zigzagged in terms of a sense of an imminent conflagration, but now I think this view has become prevalent, if not dominant. Even Haaretz military analysts, traditionally critical of Netanyahu's government (to a degree) and Israel's security apparatus (to a much smaller degree) seem now to agree that 'Israel has no choice' but to start 'a limited war' against Hezbollah (hope you're laughing bitterly at this as I do).
Two potentially related incidents from the last couple of days add to this growing feeling of imminent war: Iran's launch of a new satellite into orbit, and the Houthis' successful use of maneuvering and therefore uninterceptable hypersonic missile against Israel.
Iran and the Axis of Resistance it heads have access to high-quality, real-time intelligence on Israel, and a [proven ability to hit basically anywhere in it within minutes. These two developments alone shatter any previous balance of power (but they are not alone: Israel reaches this point weakened in so many different ways it needs a separate mega-post).
My assessment of the inevitability of a major war, though, did not and does not rely on an analysis of military capabilities. It is based on my intimate and extensive reading of Israel's psychology, and that of its messianic right wing (which only differ in degree, not in essence).
You see, Netanyahu, Israel's government and establishments and the whole Zionist infrastructure don't live in the present moment, or the present place.
They are not bluffing or pretending: for them, life is really and authentically made of holocaust speeches, imagined ancient kingdom bygone glories, and a future filled with domination and unshakable supremacy - the views that would get you forcibly institutionalized as an individual, but are somehow made to appear tolerable when an entire major Western political movement expresses them.
Netanyahu grew up in a family of utter psychos and has been escorted by state security almost every minute of his adult life. He doesn't even know what normal life is. He's never been exposed to that. Every aspect of normalcy (marriage, children) in his life is a carefully cultivated insane lie. Netanyahu hasn't even seen a normal person his entire life; he's 100% a deluded sociopath with unlimited power over Israel and near unlimited power over US political and defense establishments.
(By the way, and I don't want to expand on this now, but this metaphysical view of life, which irrevocably blurs one's judgment, is one of Judaism's biggest failures, or dangers; I will expand on that, as on other major themes mentioned here, separately.)
Politically in every sense of the word, but also as supported by religious and Zionist beliefs, Netanyahu and Israel have nowhere to go but over the cliff, in the hope that god (which is one with his holy spirit, the US) (the father being 'King David' and the son being Netanyahu in this Zionism Catholicism) intervenes and brings about their astronomically unlikely salvation and final triumph over global historic antisemitism (incarnated in poor Palestinian babies).
In a more grounded political way, things are so fucked in Israel, these bunch of psychotic losers can't even imagine how to amend them. Netanyahu is entangled in a series of high corruption crimes; the settlements movement is unsustainable and globally furiously (deservedly) hated; the ultra-religious won't let any serious liberalization of Israel's Judaism come about but also won't partake fully in the Zionist holy ritual of military service; the Palestinian cause is drawing more sympathy by the day; Israel's entire military and expansionist philosophy is fully exposed and at a dead end: how can this group of depraved idiots even begin to cope with any of this? their safest and easiest bet is a big war, a US miraculous rescue, and a strategic reshuffle of everything.
That's exactly what's going to happen, but just not like they imagine it. Israel is going to lose a big conventional war and become politically, socially, and economically broken, guaranteed by US and Western 'support'.
I am not sure Israel has more than a year or two to survive as a single recognizable political entity. The big war that its nature and leadership push toward is going to finally break it, after having completely and historically destroyed the reputation of everyone who had anything to do with it, from Balfour onward.
The main victims of Zionism, the Palestinians, are going through a period of heightened pain and loss. In the long run, I think that it will be understood that this tragic option was better for them than an eternal unnoticed grind that would have sent them to their collective grave unknown and forgotten by humanity. After this catastrophe, I see a real chance of a new Palestine emerging from this - one that is not constantly wrecked by its internationally supported belligerent neighbor.
I've copied previously an article by Alon Mizrahi, this one would be my second, although it's couple months old, but it's predictions about Lebanon's involvement and expanding the war against all its neighbors, including Lebanon and Iran is obvious. More so after the devastating bombardments of central civilian areas of Beirut. It's very perceptive and describes very well the psych of the present Israeli regime, I'm very appreciative of his acute analysis.
My profound many thanks to all.
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