(Translation)
Ortagus's Final Warning: Israel Will Act!
Tony Issa
Special April 3, 2025
The approximate and "reasonable" deadline granted by Washington to Lebanon regarding the arms issue and the formation of negotiating committees, which was set at between two and three months, has almost passed. This deadline comes under pressure from the United States to suspend the work of the monitoring committee, give Israel carte blanche in its military operations, and allow its scope to extend to Beirut.
Tony Issa wrote for “Houna Lebanon”:
Certainly, the pillars of the government are now fully aware of the seriousness of the American and Israeli demands, whether it concerns the issue of disarmament north of the Litani River or the issue of normalization. But it is unclear how these people will react to the ultimatums: will they inform Washington of their rejection, accompanied by justifications, as previous governments and administrations have done? Or will they bide their time, hoping that Hezbollah itself will give in to realism and be persuaded to lay down its arms, thus avoiding any internal confrontation?
If those in power were to consider rejecting these demands, they would certainly be making an unforeseeable mistake. The days of handling dangerous issues "the Lebanese way" are over and will never return. The ceasefire agreement, which grants privileges to the Israelis and the Americans and was signed by Hezbollah, gives them capabilities they cannot afford to relinquish.
At the same time, Aoun and Salam's gamble of waiting for the party's response is a dangerous venture. It still clings to its weapon north of the Litani River as an existential necessity. Having lost its basic organizational structure, it has become increasingly tied to Iran, and weapons have become its only remaining asset in Lebanon, on the Mediterranean coast, and on the Israeli border, following the defeat of Hamas and the fall of the Assad regime.
As a reminder, the Americans directly oversaw Aoun and Salam's rise to power and received from them clear commitments to implement the ceasefire agreement, relevant international resolutions, and the Taif Accord, all of which imply disarmament. These are commitments that also concern the Israelis. It would be dangerous for both men to avoid this, or to circumvent it with different explanations and justifications. In such cases, the fatal consequences that could negatively impact them, the "party," and the country should not be underestimated.
Lebanon will not succeed in confronting Israel, nor in preserving its borders with Syria, nor in reviving the state and its institutions, nor in emerging from the financial crisis, nor in ensuring internal stability and strengthening the army, without Washington's approval and full support. This means that Aoun and Salam, without any stubbornness and under any circumstances, cannot afford to stubbornly reject its demands, however difficult they may be, from weapons to normalization.
The Donald Trump administration is expressing its position boldly and insistently, under threat of withdrawing its hand from Lebanon. It is convinced that the government and Hezbollah have no choice but to comply. In any case, given the lack of transparency in the ceasefire negotiations and in the text of the agreement itself, the question becomes legitimate: are there unstated clauses or commitments that the Lebanese side promised the Americans, and the day of reckoning has come to fulfill them?
When a weak, bankrupt, and politically unbalanced Lebanon agrees to enter into agreements involving Israel, the greatest power in the Middle East, and sponsored by the United States, the greatest power in the world, it must conform and accept the interpretation of the powerful. This is the rule that governs relations between countries. For example, the Assad regime and Tehran implemented the Taif Agreement for a quarter of a century, arbitrarily and according to their interests. Today, the power equation is reversed. This fact must be taken into account, in particular, by Hezbollah, which made "the mistake of its life" by launching a war against Israel.
However, the approximate and "reasonable" deadline granted by Washington to Lebanon regarding the arms issue and the formation of negotiating committees, which had been set at between two and three months, is about to expire. This deadline comes under American pressure to suspend the work of the monitoring committee, to give Israel carte blanche in its military operations, and to allow its scope to extend to Beirut. It is highly likely that the rocket attacks from Lebanon towards Israel are simply Hezbollah's attempts to test Israel's response. The responses have been very harsh.
According to what is being said in Washington, the American deadline will likely expire when Morgan Ortagus decides to return to Lebanon to inform everyone what they must do decisively and without delay, or Israel will have carte blanche to resume the war where it "left off" on November 27. Ortagus has repeatedly postponed her arrival to give those involved more opportunities, convinced that they would comply because they had no other choice. "Soft" diplomacy is not as soft as it sounds. Rather, it is one element of Donald Trump's vast machine aimed at transforming the Middle East. Israel has been waiting for this opportunity for a long time.
a very serious, urgent and dangerous circumstance that causes great fear or worry, implying a need for immediate action or intervention. And now, the US envoy Morgan Ortagus is in Beirut, and it seems is doing and saying exactly what this report says, the Lebanese officialdom is still stalling and dragging, with it Hizbolla and all political parties, Lebanon has no valid outside help, not failing Iran nor Saudi Arabia or Russia and surely not Syria or Iraq. Meanwhile Netanyahu is in Washington discussing and promoting his many issues with President Trump, surely the war in Lebanon and the total supremacy and aggrandizement of Israel and the total destruction of Lebanon and the M-E are on the menu. A dire situation indeed.
As always, my many thanks to all my good readers and friends.
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