According to the Washington Post and the NY Times, who both reported in late Sept. that the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, offered his own version of giving the order to Russian forces that were under severe pressure from a Ukrainian attack in the southern city of Kherson not to withdraw, but maintain their ranks and positions. Putin seemed unwilling to withdraw from the entire area of western Dnieper river, however if that was the case back then, it does not appear to be the case now.
The Russian defense minister, Sergey Shoigu, announced few days ago, that Russian forces are in fact withdrawing to the eastern side of the Dnieper. Assuming this move is not a hoax, nor a bluff to facilitate another attack and further massacres, the Russian forces in fact withdrew to the eastern banks of the river out of the city, and are leaving behind the only regional capital they captured more than 8 months ago.
This is not something a man like Shoigu would or can do on his own, it is clear that orders came from higher authorities, the president himself in this case. From a Russian military perspective, this withdrawal makes a lot of sense, as general Sergey Surovikin, commander of the Russian forces in Ukraine said himself, in a televised interview with Shoigu, this step will save the lives of many of our military forces, and it will enhance our fighting abilities. The east banks will prove much easier for our forces to defend, as the Ukrainians will have to cross the river to continue their offensive.
The newspaper continues " But this decision, although a military necessity, nevertheless it represent a humiliating defeat for Putin and the Russian forces". The original story goes back to World War Two, whereby during the German invasion of the Soviet Union, Hitler was famous for his refusal to give permission for his forces to withdraw, even when it was the only logical tactical military move. Even when the Red army was besieging the German Sixth army on the outskirts of Stalingrad in the late 1942. The German leader refused permission for his forces to withdraw, " I will not return from the Volga" he shouted.
Kherson is an important port practically on the Black sea, and the capital of one of the four regions that Putin illegally annexed in Sept. Moreover, the Russians hoped to use Kherson as a base to widen their attacks and deployments. By which they could capture nearby cities like Mykolaiv and eventually Odessa. This would have allowed them to strangle Ukraine from the Black sea, which forms the main artery for their commerce and exports.
Apart from the difficulty of retreating, and crossing rivers under fire, the Russians are losing an important defensive position west of the Dnieper, and more importantly they are losing access to the northern Crimean canal, an important source of water for the entire Crimea, this will render control of Crimea more difficult and complex. And more so, since the land bridge built by Mr. Putin to connect main land Russia with Crimea was heavily damaged.
This new situation will only help demonstrate within Russia the real difficulties of the war and its impossibilities on the ground. It is already providing much-needed encouragement to Ukrainians, within the country and from outside, where both sides of the fight will be facing a tough time with winter. The West in general is acclimatizing itself with shortages of energy and their rising prices.
Even the American Congress is getting more ready to approve new military packages with even more highly sophisticated armory, thus diminishing the side of Donald Trump that was pushing for less aid and giving up the Ukraine. But all of this, in my opinion, should not make us fully optimistic for a total win, nor a total defeat of the Russian invasion.
Mr. Putin has shown, and more so lately, a fair willingness to negotiate, his approval to allow grain export from the Black sea, rolling out his nuclear threats, and his acceptance to military weaknesses leading to tactical withdrawals, all indicate that the man is not unstable nor suicidal, he's not going to start world war three. He will not for sure declare nor admit defeat, let's give the man a half honorable way out, he's already tarnished and heavily bruised, and I'm certain he could be convinced to a fair end of his miscalculated colonial invasion and destruction of Ukraine and its people.
Let the West, led by America, seize the opportunity and push Ukraine to try and solve the conflict, in an intelligent and a more pragmatic and peaceful way. Both sides need to show some rationality, pragmatism and willingness to back down if and when it works in their favor.
As always, my profound thanks to all, stay safe and well.
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