Israel Lebanon: Hezbollah's pragmatism in the maritime dossier Thursday, October 27, between Israel and Lebanon on the delimitation of their maritime border is a victory that Hezbollah fully claims. In a televised speech, the leader of the Party of God, Hassan Nasrallah, hailed "a very great victory for Lebanon: for the state, the people and the resistance". The Lebanese Shiite movement can only applaud an agreement it has called for, because of the economic benefits that Lebanon hopes for from the exploitation of gas fields in the Mediterranean. It nevertheless places him in an uncomfortable position.
Spearhead of the "axis of resistance" to the Jewish state, Hezbollah is forced to justify the signing of an agreement with the enemy against those who raise the bogeyman of normalization. It is "not an international treaty, nor a recognition of Israel", insisted Hassan Nasrallah, presenting the agreement as a simple "technical arrangement". He was responding to Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid, who on Thursday welcomed a "recognition" of Israel by Lebanon, two countries technically in a state of war.
The idea is also being debated in Lebanon, agitated by detractors of the armed movement such as the leader of the Lebanese Phalanges (Kataëb, Christian party), Samy Gemayel, who estimated, in a tweet, on October 12, after the finalization of the agreement, that Hezbollah “has fully recognized Israel (…) and has moved on ideologically to another stage”. Denouncing a "deception", Hassan Nasrallah insisted on the precautions taken by the Lebanese side to avoid this pitfall. At the end of indirect negotiations carried out under the aegis of the American envoy Amos Hochstein, the Lebanese and Israeli delegations signed the agreement on Thursday, each in a room, and on two separate letters, at the headquarters of the Interim Force of United Nations in Lebanon (FINUL) in Naqoura, southern Lebanon.
"It's not normalization in the strict sense, but it's still an agreement between two warring states, which creates a precedent for negotiation," said Mohanad Hajj Ali, researcher at the Carnegie Think Tank in Beirut. It broke a taboo in Lebanon, broke the argument that if you support the resistance, you can't negotiate with the enemy. Avoiding the collapse of the country It is a paradigm shift for the Party of God, created forty years ago under the aegis of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, to lead the "resistance" to Israel, and which still refuses to disarm, on the grounds that the Jewish state has occupied the disputed area of Shebaa Farms since its withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000.
On the issue of the maritime border, Hezbollah has played the card of pragmatism. Throughout the negotiations, which he followed down to the smallest detail without being a party to them, he showed support in principle for the position of the Lebanese authorities. On July 13, Hassan Nasrallah finally came out in favor of an agreement. "The extraction of oil and gas will bring billions of dollars to the Lebanese state, and it is the only way - economic and financial - to save the country", he said then. The Party of God is anxious to avoid a total collapse of Lebanon, both economic and security.
Already criticized for his involvement in Syria alongside the Assad regime, he is accused by many Lebanese of bearing responsibility for the country's financial sinking and the deadly explosion in the port of Beirut. “Hezbollah is keen to reap the benefits [of the deal], both to bolster its national legitimacy and narrative of 'resistance' – which has been fading for years – and to secure a sustainable cash flow for its operations at home and abroad,” said analyst Hanin Ghaddar in a note for the Washington Institute think tank. In party rhetoric, Hezbollah coerced Israel into concessions by using weapons of deterrence. On July 2, the Israeli army intercepted unarmed drones that the movement had launched over the Karish gas field to prevent the Jewish state from starting its exploitation.
The gesture, which caused a rise in tensions on both sides of the border, was interpreted as a tactic to relaunch negotiations then at a standstill, rather than as a real desire to rekindle a front, which had remained relatively calm since the war in 2006.
The Party of God has compromised. He gave the green light to the sharing of the Cana gas field and to the payment of compensation to Israel by the Total Energies group, which operates the field. He endorsed maintaining the status quo on the "line of buoys", which was established by Israel after its withdrawal from Lebanon as a presumed maritime border. And he implicitly recognized the mediating role of the United States. The signing of the agreement has the effect, in the short term, of avoiding a conflict.
On Thursday, Hassan Nasrallah announced the end of his party's "exceptional" mobilization against Israel. “Hezbollah can afford to pacify the Lebanese front in view of the new regional role it has assumed since 2016 as military adviser to resistance groups in Syria, Iraq and Yemen,” said Mohanad Hajj Ali. The agreement reduces the risk of escalation between the two parties, who are now interested in preserving their respective economic interests, without, however, eliminating the threat of a new conflict.
Hélène Sallon . This Saturday at 12:00 Négar DJAVADI Screenwriter, director and author of “Désorientale” answers questions from Dominique Laresche (TV5MONDE) and Ghazal Golshiri (Le Monde). Broadcast on TV5MONDE and on Internationales.fr Le Monde - October 29
A good article depicting some important tactical and strategic shifts in the local policies of all parties and sides surrounding the Lebanese and Israeli conflict.... As always , my usual many thanks to you all.
No comments:
Post a Comment