WILL THE US BECOME HUNGARY ?

 

Will the US Become Hungary?

Some say that under Trump, the US will become like Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Hungary: an illiberal democracy in which elections take place, but institutions like the courts and media are largely subverted to authoritarian rule. Having watched Russia slide into authoritarianism, M. Gessen made that case on The New York Times’ The Opinions podcast in November. Others think it’s less likely. Pointing to the difficulty of changing the US Constitution, the power distributed to states, and other factors, Bálint Madlovics and Bálint Magyar argue in a Foreign Affairs essay that Trump would find it more difficult to achieve the same thing here. They write: “Trump’s rampage through the federal bureaucracy and efforts to begin purges of civil servants, along with his flurry of executive orders that demonstratively challenge constitutional limitations on executive power, may seem shocking to U.S. democratic norms. But none of these plans have been put before Congress, and many of them will face legal and legislative roadblocks before they can be fully implemented.  By contrast, Orban has been able to use his disciplined supermajority in parliament to formally change Hungary’s legal foundations: tax laws, reforms, and even electoral amendments are regularly passed within days. Even the new constitution of Hungary has been amended 14 times by [Orbán’s party] Fidesz without public debate—something impossible in the United States, where constitutional amendments have been comparatively rare, requiring not only broad congressional approval but a laborious process of state ratification.” Some worry more actively. In another Foreign Affairs essay, Steven Levitsky and Lucan A. Way write that America’s “vaunted constitutional checks are failing. Trump violated the cardinal rule of democracy” when he refused to accept his 2020 election loss, as MAGA supporters attempted to block the transfer of power. Trump now has more experience in government and more fulsome control of the GOP. “[A]authoritarianism does not require the destruction of the constitutional order,” they write. “What lies ahead is not fascist or single-party dictatorship but competitive authoritarianism—a system in which parties compete in elections but the incumbent’s abuse of power tilts the playing field against the opposition.  Most autocracies that have emerged since the end of the Cold War fall into this category, including Alberto Fujimori’s Peru, Hugo Chávez’s Venezuela, and contemporary El Salvador, Hungary, India, Tunisia, and Turkey. …  [T]he system is not democratic, because incumbents rig the game by deploying the machinery of government to attack opponents and co-opt critics. Competition is real but unfair. Competitive authoritarianism will transform political life in the United States. … Democratic Party donors may be targeted by the IRS; businesses that fund civil rights groups may face heightened tax and legal scrutiny or find their ventures stymied by regulators. Critical media outlets will likely confront costly defamation suits or other legal actions as well as retaliatory policies against their parent companies.  Americans will still be able to oppose the government, but opposition will be harder and riskier, leading many elites and citizens to decide that the fight is not worth it.” Some strong words there, more so as the US is headed with sure steps into that direction, and more events of the sort taking place around the authoritarian world, take Israel and lately Turkey. As always, my many thanks to all for your time.