The report, translated by Lebanon24 , states that "Lebanon is once again on the brink of a new war with Israel, and this time the danger appears to be more structural than incidental." It adds, "On one hand, the agenda to disarm Hezbollah is being strongly pushed through diplomatic pressure led by..."USAnd its regional allies, on the other hand, Israel continues to broadcast messages of direct military threat through daily ceasefire violations, targeted assassinations, and expanding the scope of its operations.
The report argued that “the assassination of Hezbollah military commander Haitham Tabatabai in late November was not just an isolated security incident, but rather a deliberate indication that Israel does not treat the ceasefire as a binding framework, but as a tactical pause to shape the next phase of escalation.” It added: “Tel Aviv’s strategy does not aim to stabilize the status quo, but rather to exploit the current balance of weakness to prevent Hezbollah from returning as a permanent deterrent force. In this sense, the goal is not mutual deterrence through restraint, but deterrence through structural weakness.”
It added: "Alongside military pressure, diplomacy itself has taken on a more assertive character, and Egypt has recently emerged as one of the key players conveying this pressure. Following previous mediation efforts led by intelligence chief Hassan Rashad, when he visited Beirut with "Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdel-Aati. This visit represented a significant departure from previous de-escalation efforts. Unlike earlier initiatives based on restraint and crisis management, this visit underscored for Lebanese officials that unless Hezbollah disarms and Lebanon enters into direct negotiations with Israel, the country could face dire consequences. Most importantly, Egypt moved away from previous proposals that focused on an arms freeze and instead proposed a complete nationwide disarmament.
The report continued: "This change reflects Washington's growing frustration with the slow pace of political engineering in Lebanon. After the regime change in Syria Following the reshuffling of power in Beirut, it was expected that Hezbollah would be quickly squeezed through institutional mechanisms. Indeed, the Lebanese parliament tasked the army with preparing a national disarmament plan by the end of 2025. However, despite the election of a pro-Western president and the formation of a new government, Hezbollah continued to maintain its popular base and political influence, which slowed the implementation of the disarmament project and revealed the limits of external control over Lebanon's fragmented political structure.
It added: "For his part, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has so far refrained from endorsing any scenario for forced disarmament, and the reason is clear: imposing disarmament through the Lebanese armed forces carries a high risk of triggering internal military divisions, or even civil war. The army itself has expressed these concerns, and it is widely understood that it is trying to remain relatively neutral.
It added, "For Washington, which has invested heavily in strengthening the Lebanese army as a counterweight to Hezbollah, this situation is deeply troubling. From the American perspective, the army's hesitation indirectly reinforces Hezbollah's domestic legitimacy by implicitly asserting that Israel, not Hezbollah has the upper hand.
It said: “Tensions escalated further when Army Commander Rudolph Haykal publicly criticized Israel’s ceasefire violations, describing it as an enemy. Shortly afterward, his planned visit to Washington was abruptly canceled. Following this, political circles in Beirut began openly discussing the possibility of external attempts to influence the army leadership. Whether these scenarios materialize or not, their very discussion demonstrates the extent to which Lebanese military sovereignty is exposed to foreign agendas.
It continued: "After failing to generate sufficient pressure from within, Israel and the United States turned to intensifying external pressure. Assassinations, financial sanctions, and increasingly explicit threats delivered through intermediaries have become a unified pressure mechanism targeting Hezbollah and the political Lebanese system. Both are taking place, while a broad financial blockade is being imposed to weaken Hezbollah's funding channels. At the same time, the Lebanese state's continued silence in the face of these violations is exacerbating the Israeli situation. The contradiction between declared sovereignty and actual subservience.”
It continued: “This contradiction was further highlighted by the recent maritime border demarcation agreement signed between Lebanon and Southern Cyprus. Although technical discussions date back years, its political timing—coming directly after tensions between the Lebanese army leadership and Washington—was widely interpreted as a gesture of goodwill toward the United States. Given Southern Cyprus’s strategic alignment with Israel in the Eastern Mediterranean, Hezbollah circles framed the agreement as a concession of sovereign rights. In this sense, the deal was not widely viewed as merely a legal arrangement, but rather as a political signal of compliance with the American regional order.
The report continued: “In light of all this, and from Israel’s perspective, three clear messages are now being conveyed to Hezbollah: First, the top leadership is no longer immune from direct targeting; second, Syria is no longer able to serve as a safe rear base; and third, any future confrontation will not be confined to southern Lebanon. All of this represents a qualitative shift in the logic of deterrence. Furthermore, Israel is no longer signaling containment, but rather creating the conditions for a regional escalation under more favorable geopolitical circumstances.”
The report concluded that “for Hezbollah, strategic options are dwindling,” stating: “Since the Gaza war, the party has adopted a principle of strategic patience, enduring repeated Israeli violations and avoiding actions that could justify a full-scale war. However, this patience has come at a high price. Daily border strikes, targeted assassinations, economic strangulation, and psychological warfare are steadily eroding its military capabilities and political maneuvering capacity.” At the same time, the Lebanese government’s failure to confront Israeli aggression leaves Hezbollah operating within a state that speaks the language of sovereignty but lacks the capacity to defend its territory.
The report continued, “In such an environment, we are approaching a dangerous threshold, and the accumulation of pressure may ultimately push Hezbollah to a point where restraint becomes unsustainable. In reality, this would not be an ideological escalation, but rather a forced response to systematic elimination. At the same time, Hezbollah is fully aware that hasty military action could give Israel the pretext it seeks for a full-scale war.”
The report concluded, “For this reason, the parliamentary elections in May 2026 represent perhaps the last meaningful political way out of a catastrophic confrontation. If Hezbollah secures a strong electoral mandate, it may be able to contain the army-centric disarmament project through institutional channels and limit the presidency’s room for maneuver.” For its part, Israel is fully aware of this political timeline, and from Tel Aviv's strategic perspective, the period preceding the electoral rebalancing may represent the most opportune moment to deliver a decisive blow.
The report asserted that "any such confrontation will not be confined to Lebanon, as Hezbollah does not operate in isolation, and any existential threat will inevitably trigger regional reactions." It added, "Iranian signals have already intensified, with Ali Akbar Velayati, a senior advisor to the Iranian leadership, publicly stating that Hezbollah's existence is more vital to Lebanon than bread and water. This message clearly indicates that any campaign of annihilation will not remain a local conflict but will escalate into a multi-pronged regional war."
The report continued, "Although Lebanon entered 2025 with cautious optimism following the formation of a new presidency and government, as the year progresses, it finds itself more embroiled in external power struggles than at any time since 2006. The state, which speaks of sovereignty, is simultaneously powerless to halt Israeli aggression, prevent foreign interference in its military leadership, or protect its territory from becoming a proxy war zone."
It continued: “The contradiction has become clear. There is a government that is unable to stop the occupation and is demanding disarmament; and a state that is unable to protect its borders is seeking to dismantle its basic deterrent force in the country. If Israel launches a preemptive war with an American mandate, the Middle East will not only face another Lebanese war, but will enter a broader and more dangerous phase of regional confrontation. In such a scenario, Lebanon will once again be reduced to a playing field rather than an actor, and its sovereignty will be discussed rhetorically while it is practically dismantled under the weight of external pressure and internal paralysis.
A very lucid and factual report by the Turkish newspaper, It's more of a direct Turkish message than a description of the situation on the ground. Albeit being a bit old, it is a still ongoing situation, more so with the new introduction by Mr. Trump of a new element, of Syria taking care of Hezbollah, a plan that will surely lead to lots of chaos for the area and the partition of Lebanon into several parts, and taken over by Israel in the entire south, Syria under a possible Turkish umbrella in the complete north including the port city of Tripoli, and the Bekaa valey. and the creation of couple ethnic entities, as in a Druz enclave adjacent to the Druze south Syrian under Israeli occupation, and possibly a small Maronite/Christian enclave to remind the world of the "good old Lebanon". Now is Iran a complicit in this scenario, more so after the new agreements with the US. Only Time will tell.
Translated from Arabic, and arranged to fit our blog, with my comments, for the better understanding and benefit of our blog readers. As always, my many thanks to all.
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