Diplomatic information obtained by the newspaper Nidaa Al-Watan reveals that the expected Israeli ground maneuver would not be a limited operation in its objectives as presented, but rather a calculated step in a broader operational design aimed at reshaping the military balance on the ground in southern and eastern Lebanon simultaneously.
According to this information, a land advance reaching approximately 15 kilometers in depth—including the city of Tyre and its surrounding district up to the Qasmiyeh line—would be accompanied by another movement originating from the slopes of Mount Hermon towards the western Bekaa Valley and Rachaya. This parallel operation would aim to create a geographical and military separation between the south and the Bekaa Valley.
Diplomatic data indicates that the strategic objective goes beyond simply exerting direct military pressure on Hezbollah to attempt to control all the strategic land masses stretching from the southern Litani River to the Masnaa Line on the Lebanese-Syrian border. In practical terms, this would mean severing internal supply lines and geographically isolating Hezbollah's environment, in preparation for imposing new, capitulatory negotiating realities. The separation of the southern Bekaa Valley can only be interpreted within a strategic framework aimed at reshaping Lebanon's operational map in order to exert significant military pressure on the domestic political scene.
However, the most dangerous development, according to these same reports, lies in the unprecedented Syrian military buildup along the border with Lebanon. Rocket launchers, heavy artillery, and an estimated force of over forty thousand soldiers have reportedly been deployed.
Diplomatic circles confirm that these forces could intervene under any pretext, for two main reasons: firstly, within the framework of regional alliances and under American pressure aimed at reorganizing the border situation and preventing any uncontrolled extension of the conflict; secondly, with the objective of settling accounts with Hezbollah and its environment because of its participation in the war in Syria, the current Syrian leadership considering that its two main adversaries are Hezbollah and the Islamic State organization.
Reports also indicate that direct Lebanese contacts were established with the Syrian side to inquire about the reasons for these military deployments. The response was reportedly that it was a preventative measure intended to stop Hezbollah fighters from taking refuge in Syrian territory under anticipated Israeli pressure in the Bekaa Valley.
However, this justification did not convince the Lebanese side, which sees it rather as a possible sign of the opening of a parallel eastern-northern front, thus transforming Lebanon into a terrain of complete encirclement from the south and east.
On the ground, military analysis indicates that a naval blockade is already in place, with Israeli warships present off the Lebanese coast, while air dominance is maintained through complete control of the airspace. A potential simultaneous ground advance from the south, east, and north could lead to a complete military encirclement.
Faced with this scenario, crucial questions arise regarding the Lebanese state's position. If the eastern-northern front becomes active, will the Lebanese army have to intervene to repel any incursion and prevent potential massacres in predominantly Shiite towns and villages? And if a Syrian intervention were to occur with American approval or a decision, would the Lebanese army find itself facing a complex intersection of regional and international interests? What would be the Lebanese government's position regarding the possibility of the eastern border becoming a new theater of direct confrontation?
In light of this data, the intensity of contacts and diplomatic meetings conducted by the President of the Republic, General Joseph Aoun, both inside and outside the country, is interpreted as a preemptive attempt to avoid the worst and prevent Lebanon from sliding into a multi-front confrontation unprecedented in its recent history.
According to diplomatic estimates, the country is now on the threshold of a phase that could redefine both its military and political borders, in an extremely volatile regional context where the military mixes with the political, and where the logics of revenge intertwine with geopolitical strategies in an equation open to all possibilities.
A report received by email from a good friend, I'm not sure who's the originator or its authenticity, but very possible and maybe probable. consequently, and as a result of such moves by Israel and the US, and the silence and hidden complicity of all international and regional powers Lebanon might be redevised and divided physically and politically between a complying Syria and Israel, I'm not even sure if a small Christian enclave might be considered .... Or a Druze one for that matter ... surely not an Armenian one. A sad episode through our modern colonialism.
As always, my many thanks to all.
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